Value Judgments Using Belief Functions*

Audit Judgments Using Belief versus Probability Assessment

This experimental study of 96 experienced auditors examines whether auditors’ judgments are influenced by the ‘approach’ used by the auditors in uncertainty assessment and by the ‘framing’ of an audit assertion to be verified. Approach was manipulated by using belief functions and probability theory as the manner in which uncertainty was assessed. Differences in framing were manipulated by stat...

Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments of Belief and Value

When fast logic meets slow belief: Evidence for a parallel-processing model of belief bias

Two experiments pitted the default-interventionist account of belief bias against a parallel-processing model. According to the former, belief bias occurs because a fast, belief-based evaluation of the conclusion pre-empts a working-memory demanding logical analysis. In contrast, according to the latter both belief-based and logic-based responding occur in parallel. Participants were given dedu...

Propagation of belief functions: a distributed approach

r. Abstract and Introduction In this paper, we describe a scheme for propagating belief functions in certain kinds of trees using only local computations. This scheme generalizes the computational scheme proposed by Shafer and Logan 1 for diagnostic trees of the type studied by Gordon and Shortliffe2,3 and the slightly more general scheme given by Shafer4 for hierarchical evidence. It also gene...

Capturing the Justification Provided by Elementary Evidence Structures Using Dempster-Shafer Theory

In forecasting and decision making, people can and often do represent a degree of belief in some proposition. At least two separate constructs have been identified to capture such degrees of belief: likelihood and support. This paper explores the support or justification that evidence affords propositions, with subjects using belief functions to communicate degrees of support. Legal situations ...